Decoding the First Two Weeks at Saratoga

Dave Liftin has noted in the Daily Racing Form that chalk has not been as dominant through the first seven racing days of the 2006 Spa meet as has been the case in the past two years:

Overall, the chalk staggered - sometimes literally - through the first seven racing days to win 17 of 66 races, a mere 25.7 percent. Meanwhile, 23 winners got away at 6-1 or better. For purposes of comparison, the corresponding period last year produced 13 such good things.

 
And a look at the first two weeks (11 racing days) of trainer stats also reveals that wins are being widely spread amongst trainers. Todd Pletcher leads with seven wins from 37 starters, a 19% win percentage (four have come in stakes races). Scott Blasi, who has taken over Asmussen's string, is a strong 6-for-21 (29%). And only 1 win has come in 2-year-old races, which has been Asmussen's strongest Spa angle over the past two years. Bobby Frankel has four wins, from 19 starts (21%). And then some 12 trainers are tied for fourth place in wins with three apiece. Interesting angles that have turned up for far, include: Barclay Tagg is 3-for-6 off the 30-day-plus layoff. Pletcher is 4-for-13 (31%) in two-year old races. D. Wayne Lukas (2-for-8) and Richard Violette (2-for-5) have two wins. And 11 trainers have notched 1 win in two-year-old races.

The talent is very deep at Saratoga and the stats bear this out so far. The horse (and trainer) colony have been evenly matched during the first two weeks, which may explain the decline in the number of favorites winning and higher mutuals. Pletcher is taking his spot at the top of the standings, but has been far from dominant. Blasi (with Asmussen's strong East Coast string) and Frankel, both figured as strong trainers this year, and are second and third, respectively. The 12-way tie for fourth includes: Contessa; R. Dutrow, Zito; Mott; Biancone; Clement; McLaughlin; Bush; Violette; Tagg; Hills; Rice. All 12 are generally solid, competent trainers. The first two weeks have been tough to decode. Post-race reviews generally show that the horses (and trainers) winning generally do figure somehow. Time to buckle down for the second-third of the meet to take down some of those juicy prices.